Will spot rates follow the normal seasonality pattern or remain elevated

Volatility still dominated the GB Inbound lanes monitored by Transporeon last week. There seems to be some stabilization of spot rates, at higher level than the Q3 average, and in some cases also higher in comparison to weeks 40-50 (where we observed clear indication of stockpiling activities.)

The key question for this and next week is, if rates will follow the normal seasonality pattern (Q1 is characterized by over-capacity on most lanes, i.e. spot rates decline), or remain elevated.

Transport demand is slowly recovering but still sluggish – our FR<>GB border crossing monitoring, based on real-time visibility data by Sixfold, indicates significant volume drop compared to the same weeks in January 2020. Actually, freight volumes for goods moving between the UK and EU are currently down 38% compared to the same week one year ago.

Rejection rates are on the rise again and higher than normal and, on some lanes, every fifth contract load got rejected in calendar week 3/2021.

While we are focused mainly on monitoring the truckload market developments from continental Europe to Great Britain, there is evidence that the opposite direction is also facing significant challenges. We observe very high rejection rates from GB to DE and FR.

This supports the anecdotal evidence of unprepared shippers, maxed out bank guarantees for transit documents, and carriers preferring to go back to the continent empty. We will continue monitoring GB outbound in the coming weeks.